Determinanty chwiejności wyborczej

Abstract

The monograph takes up the issues of determinants of electoral volatility in reference to four groups of factors — that is, systemic, social, psychological, and economic. The opening chapter aims at introducing the reader with the issues of electoral volatility, where definitions of electoral volatility have been presented with regards to different research perspectives. With due attention to the specific character of the phenomenon, different methodological issues have been discussed, predominantly those concerning the indices of electoral volatility as well as dilemmas over their usage. Moreover, the chapter provides an analysis of electoral volatility in terms of democratic consolidation processes. Chapter one ends with critical analysis of operational and interpretative approaches. The subsequent chapters discuss the groups of electoral volatility determinants. The first group comprises systemic factors that include both the shape of political system and institutional solutions at the same time functioning as its framework. Taking into account their range of impact on electoral volatility, the aforementioned areas provide an analysis of the following factors: political regime, political system, compulsory voting, incentives for electoral activity, the form of political party system, new parties, political polarization, forced electoral volatility, as well as electoral manipulation. The second group of determinants comprises social factors connected with the social structure where an individual functions, and which is a point of departure in making decisions, including electoral ones (socio-political divisions, politics directed toward the increased electoral participation, preelection polls, Democracy 2.0, and political leadership). Psychological factors belong to the third group. However, they are viewed rather controversially in the literature on the subject as they mainly concern latent (hidden) variables, which are far more difficult to prove and, apart from that, it generates discussions that are hypothetical and dubious in nature. Within this area different factors have been analyzed — that is, axiology, civic competence, psychological contract, party identification, political branding, electoral uncertainty, and a negative election campaign. The next chapter deals with the analysis of economic variables which are expressions of distinct relations between economy and politics. In terms of the analysis of relations between economy and politics that may occur essential for the electoral volatility, the analysis has been delineated in regards with the following theories and models: rational choice theory, public choice theory, constitutional economy, economic theory of democracy, a model of an investing elector, retro- and prospective voting. The economic factors that moderate electoral volatility have also been depicted in terms of the assumptions of the “New Politics” as well as mechanisms that govern the European Parliament elections. In the summary the author attempts at delineating connections between the presented and discussed in particular chapters of the book, groups of determinants and electoral volatility, with focus on the essential extent of the hypothetic character of the discussion, which however results from difficulties in their empirical verification. Aside from that, the author seeks for answers to questions on the stability of particular determinants in time and possibilities of their external influencing.