Ground-motion prediction equation and site effect characterization for the central area of the Main Syncline, Upper Silesia Coal Basin, Poland

Abstract

The aim of the study was to find the best model of ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) forecasting peak ground acceleration (PGA) caused by induced seismicity. The maximum values of PGA on the surface are a major seismic threat for the infrastructure, especially in the highly urbanized areas, such is the Upper Silesian Metropolitan Area. The forecasting equations were estimated based on the values of PGA, epicenter distances and mining tremor energy registered by 14 surface seismometer stations located in the central area of the Main Syncline of the Upper Silesia Coal Basin. Data were collected within the period from January 2010 to December 2016, and the total number of seismic events used in the calculations was 15 541. The final model predicted the PGA values and amplification coefficients representing the characteristics of the site effects under seismometer stations.