http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12128/13030
Tytuł: | Forecasting model of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula pollen concentration levels using spatiotemporal correlation properties of pollen count |
Autor: | Nowosad, Jakub Stach, Alfred Kasprzyk, Idalia Weryszko-Chmielewska, Elżbieta Piotrowska-Weryszko, Krystyna Puc, Małgorzata Grewling, Łukasz Pędziszewska, Anna Uruska, Agnieszka Myszkowska, Dorota Chłopek, Kazimiera Majkowska-Wojciechowska, Barbara |
Słowa kluczowe: | Aerobiology; Allergenic pollen; Betulaceae; Forecast; Random forest; Spatiotemporal models |
Data wydania: | 2016 |
Źródło: | Aerobiologia, Vol. 32, (2016), s. 453-468 |
Abstrakt: | The aim of the study was to create and evaluate models for predicting high levels of daily pollen concentration of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula using a spatiotemporal correlation of pollen count. For each taxon, a high pollen count level was established according to the first allergy symptoms during exposure. The dataset was divided into a training set and a test set, using a stratified random split. For each taxon and city, the model was built using a random forest method. Corylus models performed poorly. However, the study revealed the possibility of predicting with substantial accuracy the occurrence of days with high pollen concentrations of Alnus and Betula using past pollen count data from monitoring sites. These results can be used for building (1) simpler models, which require data only from aerobiological monitoring sites, and (2) combined meteorological and aerobiological models for predicting high levels of pollen concentration. |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12128/13030 |
DOI: | 10.1007/s10453-015-9418-y |
ISSN: | 0393-5965 1573-3025 |
Pojawia się w kolekcji: | Artykuły (WNP) |
Plik | Opis | Rozmiar | Format | |
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Nowosad_Forecasting_model_of_Corylus.pdf | 1,42 MB | Adobe PDF | Przejrzyj / Otwórz |
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