Metody analizy przestrzenno-czasowej w badaniach klimatologicznych (na przykładzie Polski)

Abstract

The main objective of the study is to present spatial and temporal methods in climatology using GIS techniques. The study is mainly based on the examples of climatological elements from the territory of Poland. Simultaneously, many examples from world literature were cited. Special importance of the European Union/European Science Foundation programme COST 719 "The use of GIS in climatology and meteorology" was stressed. First, a review of contemporary studies is presented with explanation of some terms such as "interpolation" and "spatialisation". The principle features of the GIS, digital maps and spatial analyses were discussed. Spatialisation problems were explained on the Polish examples with special attention paid to the air temperature and precipitation. That was done with the reference to some European results. All mentioned studies clearly confirmed that there is no one universal spatialisation method efficient enough for all climatological elements. Moreover, each spatial and temporal scale may require application of other spatialisation method. Usually, the best results can be achieved with the application of methods using additional explanatory variables such as residual kriging, cokriging or multiple regression. Different geographic parameters, including elevation, latitude, longitude, land cover etc. can be used as the predictor variables for the spatialisation. When one can not find them and the coherence between analysing parameter and other variables is unknown application of ordinary kriging is recommended in the first step. The study confirms that application of circulation types as the main additional predictor (i.e. synoptic climatology method) together with GIS techniques e.g. residual kriging is a useful and promising tool for constructing climate maps at different temporal and spatial scales. The results show that climatological studies with this kind of methodological approach may have a prior cognitive as well as a practical importance. Using the "Grosswetterlagen" calendar of circulation types for this purpose for the territory of Poland has shown that each type causes a slightly different spatial distribution of e.g. air temperature both in winter and summer. Finally, there are some examples presenting GIS tools for the purposes of temporal analyses. They enable an easy calculation and display of the area with specified climatic conditions and constructing diagrams for the climate monitoring purposes. Gridded approach is strongly recommended as a promising tool for the studies with different spatial and temporal scales.